Hambericho Durame 0–2 Wolkite Ketema

Hambericho Durame

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Wolkite Ketema

6/30/2024

Premier League · Round 29Hawassa Artificial Field

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Hambericho Durame17%

×Draw27%

Wolkite Ketema56%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hambericho DurameExpected goals in this matchWolkite Ketema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.67

1.44

Hambericho Durame

0.67

Wolkite Ketema

1.44

Wolkite Ketema creates 115% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

0.13

creates per match

1.14

1.73

allows per match

1.21

creates per match

Hambericho Durame

0.13

Wolkite Ketema

1.14

allows per match

Hambericho Durame

1.73

Wolkite Ketema

1.21

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hambericho Durame+0.00on par

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under65
Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No63
Yes37

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hambericho Durame ↓

Wolkite Ketema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–117%

0–213%

0–36%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–03%

2–14%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

62%38%2.5

35%65%3.5

16%84%4.5

6%94%

Double chance

Hambericho Durame or draw

44%

Hambericho Durame or Wolkite Ketema

73%

Draw or Wolkite Ketema

83%

Winning margin

Hambericho Durame wins by 2+

5%

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+

28%

Team goals

Hambericho Durame 1+ goals

49%

Hambericho Durame 2+ goals

15%

Hambericho Durame 3+ goals

3%

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals

76%

Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals

42%

Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals

18%

Draw no bet

Hambericho Durame (draw refunded)

24%

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)

76%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

26%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hambericho Durame at home — creates 0.13, concedes 1.73 · 15 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hambericho Durame attack 0.13 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 0.67

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Hambericho Durame defence 1.73 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Hambericho Durame scores more

17%

level

27%

Wolkite Ketema scores more

56%

Wolkite Ketema at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff