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Wolkite Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
0 – 3
HT: 0 – 1
Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
4/18/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 22Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Wolkite Ketema20%
×Draw28%
Ethiopian Medhin53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.73
Ethiopian Medhin
1.39

Ethiopian Medhin creates 90% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Ethiopian Medhin
1.44

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Ethiopian Medhin
0.82

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Under
  • Under64
  • Over36

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

61%No
  • No61
  • Yes39

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Ethiopian Medhin →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–117%
0–212%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–03%
2–14%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (17%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
63%37%2.5
36%64%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
47%
Wolkite Ketema or Ethiopian Medhin
72%
Draw or Ethiopian Medhin
80%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
6%
Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
26%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
52%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
17%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
4%
Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
75%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
40%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
27%
Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
73%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Ethiopian Medhin away — creates 1.44, concedes 0.82 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 0.73

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.44 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.39

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
20%
level
28%
Ethiopian Medhin scores more
53%

Ethiopian Medhin at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolkite Ketema vs Ethiopian Medhin

Ethiopian Medhin beat Wolkite Ketema 3-0 in Premier League on April 18, 2024.

The match was played at Dire Dawa Stadium in Dire Dawa.