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Ethiopian Medhin vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Ethiopian Medhin
Ethiopian Medhin
CANC
12:00
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
12/5/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 10Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ethiopian Medhin38%
×Draw29%
Wolkite Ketema33%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopian Medhin
1.16
Wolkite Ketema
1.07

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ethiopian Medhin
1.11
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Ethiopian Medhin
1.00
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Ethiopian Medhin+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Under
  • Under61
  • Over39

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

55%No
  • No55
  • Yes45

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopian Medhin ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–112%
0–26%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–18%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
65%35%2.5
39%61%3.5
19%81%4.5
8%92%

Double chance

Ethiopian Medhin or draw
67%
Ethiopian Medhin or Wolkite Ketema
71%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
62%

Winning margin

Ethiopian Medhin wins by 2+
16%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Ethiopian Medhin 1+ goals
69%
Ethiopian Medhin 2+ goals
32%
Ethiopian Medhin 3+ goals
11%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
66%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
29%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ethiopian Medhin (draw refunded)
53%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
32%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopian Medhin at home — creates 1.11, concedes 1.00 · 66 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopian Medhin attack 1.11 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.16

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Ethiopian Medhin defence 1.00 → ÷2 → 1.07

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Ethiopian Medhin scores more
38%
level
29%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
33%

Ethiopian Medhin at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Ethiopian Medhin will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Ethiopian Medhin host Wolkite Ketema

December 5, 2024: Ethiopian Medhin take on Wolkite Ketema in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Ethiopian Medhin host Wolkite Ketema at Dire Dawa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.