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Wolkite Ketema vs Ethiopia Nigd Bank — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
5/10/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 24Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 52+ matches

Wolkite Ketema24%
×Draw29%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank47%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.83
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.28

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 54% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 52 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.23

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.02

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Under
  • Under65
  • Over35

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

59%No
  • No59
  • Yes41

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Ethiopia Nigd Bank →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–012%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
88%12%1.5
62%38%2.5
35%65%3.5
16%84%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
53%
Wolkite Ketema or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
71%
Draw or Ethiopia Nigd Bank
76%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
8%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
22%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
56%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
20%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
5%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
72%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
37%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
34%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
28%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank away — creates 1.23, concedes 1.02 · 52 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.02 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.23 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
24%
level
29%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
47%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wolkite Ketema 1–2 Ethiopia Nigd Bank

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Wolkite Ketema 2-1 in Premier League on May 10, 2024.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.