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Ethiopia Nigd Bank vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
Ethiopia Nigd Bank
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
10/31/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 5Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Ethiopia Nigd Bank42%
×Draw27%
Wolkite Ketema30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.34
Wolkite Ketema
1.09

Ethiopia Nigd Bank creates 23% more chances

Season form · 51 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.47
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank
1.04
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Ethiopia Nigd Bank+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Nigd Bank ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ethiopia Nigd Bank or draw
70%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank or Wolkite Ketema
73%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
58%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Nigd Bank wins by 2+
20%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 1+ goals
74%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2+ goals
39%
Ethiopia Nigd Bank 3+ goals
15%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
66%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
30%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Nigd Bank (draw refunded)
58%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.04 · 51 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Nigd Bank attack 1.47 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Ethiopia Nigd Bank defence 1.04 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Ethiopia Nigd Bank scores more
42%
level
27%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
30%

Ethiopia Nigd Bank at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Ethiopia Nigd Bank will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ethiopia Nigd Bank 2 – 0 Wolkite Ketema

Ethiopia Nigd Bank beat Wolkite Ketema 2-0 in Premier League on October 31, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.