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Wolkite Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
FT
0 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
12/17/2021Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 8Hawassa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolkite Ketema25%
×Draw30%
Ethiopia Bunna45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.83
Ethiopia Bunna
1.22

Ethiopia Bunna creates 47% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 102 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.33
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
55%
Wolkite Ketema or Ethiopia Bunna
70%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
75%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
8%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
56%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
20%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
5%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
70%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
34%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
36%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
64%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.22

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
25%
level
30%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
45%

Ethiopia Bunna at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Wolkite Ketema 0–1 Ethiopia Bunna

Ethiopia Bunna beat Wolkite Ketema 1-0 in Premier League on December 17, 2021.

The match was played at Hawassa Stadium in Hawassa.