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Ethiopia Bunna vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
FT
1 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
4/8/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 18Adama Science and Technology University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Ethiopia Bunna43%
×Draw27%
Wolkite Ketema30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ethiopia Bunna
1.34
Wolkite Ketema
1.06

Ethiopia Bunna creates 26% more chances

Season form · 101 home / 66 away

creates per match

Ethiopia Bunna
1.47
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Ethiopia Bunna
0.99
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Under
  • Under57
  • Over43

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%No
  • No52
  • Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ethiopia Bunna ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
69%31%2.5
43%57%3.5
22%78%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Ethiopia Bunna or draw
70%
Ethiopia Bunna or Wolkite Ketema
73%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
57%

Winning margin

Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
20%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
74%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
39%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
15%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
65%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
29%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
59%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
35%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ethiopia Bunna at home — creates 1.47, concedes 0.99 · 101 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.47 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.34

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 0.99 → ÷2 → 1.06

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Ethiopia Bunna scores more
43%
level
27%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
30%

Ethiopia Bunna at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Ethiopia Bunna 1 – 0 Wolkite Ketema

Ethiopia Bunna beat Wolkite Ketema 1-0 in Premier League on April 8, 2023.

The match was played at Adama Science and Technology University Stadium in Adama.