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Wolkite Ketema vs Ethiopia Bunna — Premier League 2019

Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
CANC
00:00
Ethiopia Bunna
Ethiopia Bunna
5/31/2020Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 28Welkite Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Wolkite Ketema25%
×Draw29%
Ethiopia Bunna46%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolkite Ketema
0.83
Ethiopia Bunna
1.23

Ethiopia Bunna creates 48% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 102 away

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema
0.64
Ethiopia Bunna
1.11

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema
1.35
Ethiopia Bunna
1.03

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par
Ethiopia Bunna+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Under
  • Under66
  • Over34

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

60%No
  • No60
  • Yes40

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Ethiopia Bunna →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–013%
0–116%
0–210%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–011%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–04%
2–15%
2–23%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–01%
3–11%
3–21%
3–30%
3–40%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
87%13%1.5
61%39%2.5
34%66%3.5
15%85%4.5
6%94%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw
54%
Wolkite Ketema or Ethiopia Bunna
71%
Draw or Ethiopia Bunna
75%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
8%
Ethiopia Bunna wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
56%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
20%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
5%
Ethiopia Bunna 1+ goals
71%
Ethiopia Bunna 2+ goals
35%
Ethiopia Bunna 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
35%
Ethiopia Bunna (draw refunded)
65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
27%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.35 · 66 matches

Ethiopia Bunna away — creates 1.11, concedes 1.03 · 102 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Ethiopia Bunna defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 0.83

Ethiopia Bunna attack 1.11 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.35 → ÷2 → 1.23

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more
25%
level
29%
Ethiopia Bunna scores more
46%

Ethiopia Bunna at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Ethiopia Bunna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wolkite Ketema host Ethiopia Bunna

May 31, 2020: Wolkite Ketema take on Ethiopia Bunna in Premier League. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wolkite Ketema host Ethiopia Bunna at Welkite Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.