Wolkite Ketema 1–0 Arba Minch Kenema

Wolkite Ketema

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Arba Minch Kenema

9/30/2022

Premier League · Round 1Bahir Dar University Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Wolkite Ketema25%

×Draw30%

Arba Minch Kenema44%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolkite KetemaExpected goals in this matchArba Minch Kenema

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.81

1.17

Wolkite Ketema

0.81

Arba Minch Kenema

1.17

Arba Minch Kenema creates 44% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 66 away

0.64

creates per match

1.00

1.33

allows per match

0.98

creates per match

Wolkite Ketema

0.64

Arba Minch Kenema

1.00

allows per match

Wolkite Ketema

1.33

Arba Minch Kenema

0.98

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par

Total goals

Under68
Over32

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No62
Yes38

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolkite Ketema ↓

Arba Minch Kenema →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–014%

0–116%

0–29%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–15%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (16%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

86%14%1.5

59%41%2.5

32%68%3.5

14%86%4.5

5%95%

Double chance

Wolkite Ketema or draw

56%

Wolkite Ketema or Arba Minch Kenema

70%

Draw or Arba Minch Kenema

75%

Winning margin

Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+

8%

Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals

56%

Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals

19%

Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals

5%

Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals

69%

Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals

33%

Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)

37%

Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

25%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolkite Ketema at home — creates 0.64, concedes 1.33 · 67 matches

Arba Minch Kenema away — creates 1.00, concedes 0.98 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolkite Ketema attack 0.64 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 0.98 → ÷2 → 0.81

Arba Minch Kenema attack 1.00 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Wolkite Ketema scores more

25%

level

30%

Arba Minch Kenema scores more

44%

Arba Minch Kenema at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Arba Minch Kenema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff