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Arba Minch Kenema vs Wolkite Ketema — Premier League 2019

Arba Minch Kenema
Arba Minch Kenema
CANC
13:00
Wolkite Ketema
Wolkite Ketema
10/21/2024Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 4Dire Dawa Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Arba Minch Kenema34%
×Draw29%
Wolkite Ketema37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Arba Minch Kenema
1.06
Wolkite Ketema
1.13

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 66 home / 66 away

creates per match

Arba Minch Kenema
0.91
Wolkite Ketema
1.14

allows per match

Arba Minch Kenema
1.12
Wolkite Ketema
1.21

finishing

Arba Minch Kenema+0.00on par
Wolkite Ketema+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Under
  • Under63
  • Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

56%No
  • No56
  • Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Arba Minch Kenema ↓

Wolkite Ketema →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–011%
0–113%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–17%
2–24%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–21%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
89%11%1.5
64%36%2.5
37%63%3.5
18%82%4.5
7%93%

Double chance

Arba Minch Kenema or draw
63%
Arba Minch Kenema or Wolkite Ketema
71%
Draw or Wolkite Ketema
66%

Winning margin

Arba Minch Kenema wins by 2+
13%
Wolkite Ketema wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Arba Minch Kenema 1+ goals
65%
Arba Minch Kenema 2+ goals
29%
Arba Minch Kenema 3+ goals
9%
Wolkite Ketema 1+ goals
68%
Wolkite Ketema 2+ goals
31%
Wolkite Ketema 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Arba Minch Kenema (draw refunded)
48%
Wolkite Ketema (draw refunded)
52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
31%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Arba Minch Kenema at home — creates 0.91, concedes 1.12 · 66 matches

Wolkite Ketema away — creates 1.14, concedes 1.21 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Arba Minch Kenema attack 0.91 + Wolkite Ketema defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.06

Wolkite Ketema attack 1.14 + Arba Minch Kenema defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 1.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 37%?"

Arba Minch Kenema scores more
34%
level
29%
Wolkite Ketema scores more
37%

Wolkite Ketema at 37% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 37% does not mean "Wolkite Ketema will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Arba Minch Kenema face Wolkite Ketema (Premier League)

Premier League returns with Arba Minch Kenema hosting Wolkite Ketema. Match starts October 21, 2024. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Arba Minch Kenema host Wolkite Ketema at Dire Dawa Stadium.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.