Wolfurt 0–3 Röthis: Result & Stats

Wolfurt

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Röthis

A. Fontain 90'

C. Domig 79'

F. Domig 30'

9/30/2023

Regionalliga - West · West - 10Sportplatz Wolfurt

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 50+ matches

Wolfurt48%

×Draw22%

Röthis30%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

WolfurtExpected goals in this matchRöthis

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.54

Wolfurt

1.98

Röthis

1.54

Wolfurt creates 29% more chances

Season form · 50 home / 67 away

1.70

creates per match

1.45

1.62

allows per match

2.27

creates per match

Wolfurt

1.70

Röthis

1.45

allows per match

Wolfurt

1.62

Röthis

2.27

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfurt+0.00on par

Röthis+0.00on par

Total goals

Over68
Under32

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfurt ↓

Röthis →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–19%

1–27%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–34%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

68%32%3.5

46%54%4.5

27%73%

Double chance

Wolfurt or draw

70%

Wolfurt or Röthis

78%

Draw or Röthis

52%

Winning margin

Wolfurt wins by 2+

27%

Röthis wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Wolfurt 1+ goals

86%

Wolfurt 2+ goals

59%

Wolfurt 3+ goals

31%

Röthis 1+ goals

79%

Röthis 2+ goals

45%

Röthis 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Wolfurt (draw refunded)

61%

Röthis (draw refunded)

39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfurt at home — creates 1.70, concedes 1.62 · 50 matches

Röthis away — creates 1.45, concedes 2.27 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfurt attack 1.70 + Röthis defence 2.27 → ÷2 → 1.98

Röthis attack 1.45 + Wolfurt defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.54

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wolfurt scores more

48%

level

22%

Röthis scores more

30%

Wolfurt at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wolfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

30'

F. Domig

46'

T. Wegscheider← N. Kienreich

54'

P. Erath← M. Bajraktar

73'

W. Seher← A. Rexhaj

76'

J. Marent← A. Petrovic

79'

82'

83'

87'

90'

Wolfurt

Röthis

Böckle

Berthold

Scheichl

⚽

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: J. Baur

46'▲T. Wegscheider←▼N. Kienreich

54'▲P. Erath←▼M. Bajraktar

76'▲J. Marent←▼A. Petrovic

82'▲F. Berneker←▼N. Votu

Wolfurt substitutes

WegscheiderErathMarentBernekerFleischhackerGodula

Manager: D. Visintainer

73'▲W. Seher←▼A. Rexhaj

83'▲A. Fontain←▼J. Mair

87'▲S. Breuss←▼F. Domig

Röthis substitutes

SeherFontainBreussFleisch