Röthis 1–2 Wolfurt: Result & Stats

Röthis

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Wolfurt

10/12/2025

Landesliga - Vorarlbergliga · Vorarlberg - 9Sportplatz an der Ratz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 13+ matches

Röthis52%

×Draw21%

Wolfurt27%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

RöthisExpected goals in this matchWolfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.15

1.52

Röthis

2.15

Wolfurt

1.52

Röthis creates 41% more chances

Season form · 13 home / 26 away

2.38

creates per match

1.81

1.23

allows per match

1.92

creates per match

Röthis

2.38

Wolfurt

1.81

allows per match

Röthis

1.23

Wolfurt

1.92

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Röthis+0.00on par

Wolfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes69
No31

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Röthis ↓

Wolfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–18%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–27%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–16%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

50%50%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Röthis or draw

73%

Röthis or Wolfurt

79%

Draw or Wolfurt

48%

Winning margin

Röthis wins by 2+

31%

Wolfurt wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Röthis 1+ goals

88%

Röthis 2+ goals

63%

Röthis 3+ goals

36%

Wolfurt 1+ goals

78%

Wolfurt 2+ goals

45%

Wolfurt 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Röthis (draw refunded)

66%

Wolfurt (draw refunded)

34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

61%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Röthis at home — creates 2.38, concedes 1.23 · 13 matches

Wolfurt away — creates 1.81, concedes 1.92 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Röthis attack 2.38 + Wolfurt defence 1.92 → ÷2 → 2.15

Wolfurt attack 1.81 + Röthis defence 1.23 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Röthis scores more

52%

level

21%

Wolfurt scores more

27%

Röthis at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Röthis will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff