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Wolfsburg U19 vs St. Pauli U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Wolfsburg U19
Wolfsburg U19
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
9/21/2024U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · 1st Group Stage - 7AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 67+ matches

Wolfsburg U1955%
×Draw19%
St. Pauli U1925%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsburg U19
2.44
St. Pauli U19
1.63

Wolfsburg U19 creates 50% more chances

Season form · 67 home / 71 away

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19
2.73
St. Pauli U19
2.01

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19
1.25
St. Pauli U19
2.14

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par
St. Pauli U19+0.00on par

Total goals

77%Over
  • Over77
  • Under23

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

St. Pauli U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–04%
1–17%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
91%9%2.5
77%23%3.5
57%43%4.5
38%62%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw
75%
Wolfsburg U19 or St. Pauli U19
81%
Draw or St. Pauli U19
45%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+
35%
St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals
91%
Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals
70%
Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals
43%
St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
80%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
48%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)
68%
St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
32%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
66%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.73, concedes 1.25 · 67 matches

St. Pauli U19 away — creates 2.01, concedes 2.14 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.73 + St. Pauli U19 defence 2.14 → ÷2 → 2.44

St. Pauli U19 attack 2.01 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.25 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more
55%
level
19%
St. Pauli U19 scores more
25%

Wolfsburg U19 at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wolfsburg U19 1 – 1 St. Pauli U19

Wolfsburg U19 and St. Pauli U19 drew 1-1 in U19 Bundesliga on September 21, 2024.

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.