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St. Pauli U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

St. Pauli U19
St. Pauli U19
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 0
Wolfsburg U19
Wolfsburg U19
2/18/2023U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Nord / Nordost - 14Brummerskamp

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 70+ matches

St. Pauli U1932%
×Draw22%
Wolfsburg U1946%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

St. Pauli U19
1.57
Wolfsburg U19
1.90

Wolfsburg U19 creates 21% more chances

Season form · 71 home / 70 away

creates per match

St. Pauli U19
1.93
Wolfsburg U19
2.30

allows per match

St. Pauli U19
1.49
Wolfsburg U19
1.21

finishing

St. Pauli U19+0.00on par
Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

67%Over
  • Over67
  • Under33

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Pauli U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–04%
2–17%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
86%14%2.5
67%33%3.5
45%55%4.5
27%73%

Double chance

St. Pauli U19 or draw
54%
St. Pauli U19 or Wolfsburg U19
78%
Draw or Wolfsburg U19
68%

Winning margin

St. Pauli U19 wins by 2+
15%
Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+
25%

Team goals

St. Pauli U19 1+ goals
79%
St. Pauli U19 2+ goals
46%
St. Pauli U19 3+ goals
21%
Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals
85%
Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals
56%
Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals
29%

Draw no bet

St. Pauli U19 (draw refunded)
41%
Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Pauli U19 at home — creates 1.93, concedes 1.49 · 71 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.30, concedes 1.21 · 70 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Pauli U19 attack 1.93 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.21 → ÷2 → 1.57

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.30 + St. Pauli U19 defence 1.49 → ÷2 → 1.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

St. Pauli U19 scores more
32%
level
22%
Wolfsburg U19 scores more
46%

Wolfsburg U19 at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: St. Pauli U19 vs Wolfsburg U19

St. Pauli U19 beat Wolfsburg U19 3-1 in U19 Bundesliga on February 18, 2023.

The match was played at Brummerskamp in Hamburg.