Wolfsburg U19 1–2 Salzburg U19: Result & Stats

Wolfsburg U19

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Salzburg U19

S. Busch 54'

S. Baidoo 90+4'

L. Wallner 8'

11/2/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 4AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wolfsburg U1919%

×Draw21%

Salzburg U1959%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchSalzburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.05

2.00

Wolfsburg U19

1.05

Salzburg U19

2.00

Salzburg U19 creates 90% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 16 away

0.67

creates per match

2.00

allows per match

1.44

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

0.67

Salzburg U19

2.00

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.00

Salzburg U19

1.44

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Salzburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–36%

0–43%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–37%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–15%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

36%64%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

41%

Wolfsburg U19 or Salzburg U19

79%

Draw or Salzburg U19

81%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

7%

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

36%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

65%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

28%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

9%

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

86%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

59%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

32%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

25%

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

75%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Salzburg U19 away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.44 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 0.67 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.44 → ÷2 → 1.05

Salzburg U19 attack 2.00 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.00

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

19%

level

21%

Salzburg U19 scores more

59%

Salzburg U19 at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

L. Wallner

11'

T. Paumgartner← J. Omoregie

15'

E. Havel← F. Crescenti

22'

L. Homann← L. Littbarski

28'

L. Reischl

31'

F. Di Michele Sanchez

36'

40'

47'

54'

60'

61'

A. Wagbe← D. Nuhanović

75'

E. Boakye← F. Lange

75'

M. Till Meier← S. Busch

75'

G. Phong← F. Di-Michele-Sanchez

79'

S. Baidoo← T. Sahin

79'

D. Owusu← R. Šimić

80'

L. Tomljenovic

90+4'

S. Baidoo↳ E. Havel

Wolfsburg

Salzburg

21

Stejskal

3

Böckle

5

Okoh

4

⚽

Wallner

2

Atiabou

16

Major

33

▼

Omoregie

22

▼

Sahin

9

Reischl

15

▼

Šimić

18

▼

1

24

4

16

15

▼

Lange

11

▼

Di-Michel

6

Patut

7

▼

Littbarsk

28

▼

Nuhanović

9

⚽

▼

Busch

10

A

Ambros

Manager: C. Wimmer

22'▲L. Homann←▼L. Littbarski

61'▲A. Wagbe←▼D. Nuhanović

75'▲E. Boakye←▼F. Lange

75'▲M. Till Meier←▼S. Busch

75'▲G. Phong←▼F. Di-Michele-Sanchez

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

30Homann21Wagbe29Boakye20Meier3Phong14Fobassam22Mohwinkel

Manager: R. Aufhauser

11'▲T. Paumgartner←▼J. Omoregie

15'▲E. Havel←▼F. Crescenti

79'▲S. Baidoo←▼T. Sahin

79'▲D. Owusu←▼R. Šimić

Salzburg U19 substitutes

35Paumgartner7Havel30Baidoo11Owusu29Ibertsberger28Molnar1Krumrey