Salzburg U19 3–0 Wolfsburg U19: Result & Stats

Salzburg U19

FT

3 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wolfsburg U19

M. Till Meier 88' (OG)

D. Owusu 81'

J. Omoregie 37'

10/20/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 3DAS.GOLDBERG Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Salzburg U1974%

×Draw16%

Wolfsburg U1910%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Salzburg U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.49

0.80

Salzburg U19

2.49

Wolfsburg U19

0.80

Salzburg U19 creates 211% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 3 away

2.65

creates per match

0.00

1.59

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Salzburg U19

2.65

Wolfsburg U19

0.00

allows per match

Salzburg U19

1.59

Wolfsburg U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Salzburg U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Salzburg U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–18%

1–23%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–06%

4–15%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 90% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Salzburg U19 or draw

90%

Salzburg U19 or Wolfsburg U19

84%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

26%

Winning margin

Salzburg U19 wins by 2+

51%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

3%

Team goals

Salzburg U19 1+ goals

92%

Salzburg U19 2+ goals

71%

Salzburg U19 3+ goals

45%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

55%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

19%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

5%

Draw no bet

Salzburg U19 (draw refunded)

88%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Salzburg U19 at home — creates 2.65, concedes 1.59 · 17 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Salzburg U19 attack 2.65 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.49

Wolfsburg U19 attack 0.00 + Salzburg U19 defence 1.59 → ÷2 → 0.80

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Salzburg U19 scores more

74%

level

16%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

10%

Salzburg U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Salzburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

L. Homann

22'

S. Busch

29'

L. Reischl

31'

M. Till Meier← M. Pörner

37'

J. Omoregie

39'

J. Lang

46'

E. Sehic← S. Busch

49'

A. Garcia

59'

L. Littbarski

61'

E. Boakye

63'

T. Sahin

65'

O. Fobassam← E. Boakye

65'

P. Heller← L. Littbarski

73'

A. Garcia

73'

A. Garcia

79'

L. Tomljenović← L. Ambros

80'

T. Paumgartner← D. Kameri

80'

D. Owusu← F. Crescenti

81'

D. Owusu↳ J. Omoregie

88'

M. Till MeierOwn goal

89'

89'

90+4'

90+1'

Salzburg

Wolfsburg

1

Schulze

24

Lang

5

MacNulty

23

▼

Pörner

29

▼

Boakye

6

Patut

7

▼

Littbarsk

30

Homann

21

Wagbe

9

▼

Busch

10

▼

21

3

4

30

▼

Baidoo

2

▼

Atiabou

33

⚽A

Omoregie

22

Sahin

17

▼

Kameri

7

▼

Havel

9

Reischl

18

▼

Crescenti

Manager: R. Aufhauser

80'▲T. Paumgartner←▼D. Kameri

80'▲D. Owusu←▼F. Crescenti

89'▲S. Major←▼B. Atiabou

89'▲D. Klicnik←▼E. Havel

90+1'▲S. Molnar←▼S. Baidoo

Salzburg U19 substitutes

35Paumgartner11Owusu16Major34Klicnik28Molnar1Krumrey29Ibertsberger

Manager: C. Wimmer

31'▲M. Till Meier←▼M. Pörner

46'▲E. Sehic←▼S. Busch

65'▲O. Fobassam←▼E. Boakye

65'▲P. Heller←▼L. Littbarski

79'▲L. Tomljenović←▼L. Ambros

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

20Meier27Sehic14Fobassam16Heller4Tomljenović32Schönmottel3Phong

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Wolfsburg U19

Salzburg U19 beat Wolfsburg U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on October 20, 2021.

Goals: J. Omoregie (37'), D. Owusu (81'), M. Till Meier (88' o.g.).

The match was played at DAS.GOLDBERG Stadion in Grödig.

Salzburg U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Salzburg U19 vs Wolfsburg U19