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Wolfsburg U19 vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Wolfsburg U19
Wolfsburg U19
FT
2 – 0
HT: 2 – 0
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
10/25/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 10AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Wolfsburg U1976%
×Draw14%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1910%
✓ Correct in 51 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.5%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.5% correct across 581,483 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 49.7% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsburg U19
2.88
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.97

Wolfsburg U19 creates 197% more chances

Season form · 73 home / 26 away

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19
2.90
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.81

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19
1.12
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
2.85

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par

Total goals

73%Over
  • Over73
  • Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–30%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–16%
1–23%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–09%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–06%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
73%27%3.5
52%48%4.5
32%68%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw
90%
Wolfsburg U19 or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
86%
Draw or Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
24%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+
55%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+
3%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals
94%
Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals
78%
Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals
54%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals
62%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals
25%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)
88%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)
12%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 2.90, concedes 1.12 · 73 matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 away — creates 0.81, concedes 2.85 · 26 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.90 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 2.85 → ÷2 → 2.88

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.12 → ÷2 → 0.97

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 76%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more
76%
level
14%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more
10%

Wolfsburg U19 at 76% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 76% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolfsburg U19 vs Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2-0 in U19 Bundesliga on October 25, 2025.

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.