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Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Wolfsburg U19 — U19 Bundesliga 2019

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
FT
2 – 3
HT: 2 – 0
Wolfsburg U19
Wolfsburg U19
S. Durakov 11' (pen), 5'
C. Sticherling 82'
M. Boog 64'
K. Šimić 50'
8/20/2025U19 BundesligaU19 Bundesliga · Round 3Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 26+ matches

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U1911%
×Draw15%
Wolfsburg U1974%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 577,253 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.6% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
1.00
Wolfsburg U19
2.77

Wolfsburg U19 creates 177% more chances

Season form · 26 home / 78 away

creates per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
0.81
Wolfsburg U19
2.40

allows per match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19
3.15
Wolfsburg U19
1.19

finishing

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19+0.00on par
Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–17%
0–29%
0–38%
0–46%
1
1–02%
1–17%
1–29%
1–38%
1–46%
2
2–01%
2–13%
2–25%
2–34%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–11%
3–22%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–2 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or draw
26%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 or Wolfsburg U19
85%
Draw or Wolfsburg U19
89%

Winning margin

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 wins by 2+
4%
Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+
53%

Team goals

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 1+ goals
63%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 2+ goals
26%
Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3+ goals
8%
Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals
94%
Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals
76%
Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals
51%

Draw no bet

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 (draw refunded)
13%
Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)
87%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 at home — creates 0.81, concedes 3.15 · 26 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 2.40, concedes 1.19 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 attack 0.81 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.00

Wolfsburg U19 attack 2.40 + Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 defence 3.15 → ÷2 → 2.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 74%?"

Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 scores more
11%
level
15%
Wolfsburg U19 scores more
74%

Wolfsburg U19 at 74% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 74% does not mean "Wolfsburg U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

5'
S. Durakov
11'
S. DurakovPenalty
50'
K. Šimić
64'
M. Boog
82'
C. Sticherling

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 vs Wolfsburg U19

Wolfsburg U19 beat Rot-Weiß Erfurt U19 3-2 in U19 Bundesliga on August 20, 2025.

Goals: S. Durakov (5', 11' pen), K. Šimić (50'), M. Boog (64'), C. Sticherling (82').

The match was played at Sportzentrum Cyriaksgebreite in Erfurt.