Wolfsburg U19 0–3 Lille U19: Result & Stats

Wolfsburg U19

FT

0 – 3

HT: 0 – 1

Lille U19

K. Auvray 90+3'

José Reis 62'

E. Boula 1'

12/8/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 6AOK Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Wolfsburg U1926%

×Draw25%

Lille U1949%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsburg U19Expected goals in this matchLille U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.08

1.58

Wolfsburg U19

1.08

Lille U19

1.58

Lille U19 creates 46% more chances

Season form · 3 home / 6 away

0.67

creates per match

1.17

2.00

allows per match

1.50

creates per match

Wolfsburg U19

0.67

Lille U19

1.17

allows per match

Wolfsburg U19

2.00

Lille U19

1.50

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Lille U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under50
Over50

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsburg U19 ↓

Lille U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–07%

0–111%

0–29%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–08%

1–112%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–16%

2–25%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–01%

3–12%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–00%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

93%7%1.5

74%26%2.5

50%50%3.5

28%72%4.5

13%87%

Double chance

Wolfsburg U19 or draw

51%

Wolfsburg U19 or Lille U19

75%

Draw or Lille U19

74%

Winning margin

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

10%

Lille U19 wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

66%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

29%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

10%

Lille U19 1+ goals

79%

Lille U19 2+ goals

47%

Lille U19 3+ goals

21%

Draw no bet

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

35%

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

65%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsburg U19 at home — creates 0.67, concedes 2.00 · 3 matches

Lille U19 away — creates 1.17, concedes 1.50 · 6 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsburg U19 attack 0.67 + Lille U19 defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.08

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 1.58

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

26%

level

25%

Lille U19 scores more

49%

Lille U19 at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Lille U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'

E. Boula↳ José Reis

44'

N. Buayi-Kiala

60'

A. Doci← G. Phong

60'

M. Brkić← M. Till Meier

62'

José Reis↳ J. Mboyo

64'

A. Doci

74'

C. Østergaard← E. Patut

74'

E. Sehic← D. Nuhanović

80'

T. Vromant← José Reis

88'

A. Messoussa← E. Boula

88'

90+2'

90+2'

90+3'

Wolfsburg

Lille

1

Negrel

3

Innocenti

4

▼

Rolland

2

Lantaki

5

Mercier

11

⚽

▼

Boula

10

A

▼

Mboyo

7

Ramet

8

▼

Mabanza

6

Buayi-Kia

9

⚽A

▼

Reis

1

Schulze

24

Lang

3

▼

Phong

15

Lange

5

Bastin

6

▼

Patut

20

▼

Meier

21

Wagbe

26

Kastull

28

▼

Nuhanović

7

Mazzone

Manager: C. Wimmer

60'▲A. Doci←▼G. Phong

60'▲M. Brkić←▼M. Till Meier

74'▲C. Østergaard←▼E. Patut

74'▲E. Sehic←▼D. Nuhanović

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

8Doci9Brkić2Østergaard27Sehic25Rodriguez22Mohwinkel

Manager: S. Pichot

80'▲T. Vromant←▼José Reis

88'▲A. Messoussa←▼E. Boula

88'▲K. Auvray←▼J. Mboyo

90+2'▲L. Yoro←▼B. Rolland

90+2'▲A. Faiz←▼C. Mabanza

Lille U19 substitutes

14Vromant17Messoussa13Auvray12Yoro15Faiz16Mistoihi

UEFA Youth League: Wolfsburg U19 0–3 Lille U19

Lille U19 beat Wolfsburg U19 3-0 in UEFA Youth League on December 8, 2021.

Goals: E. Boula (1'), José Reis (62'), K. Auvray (90+3').

The match was played at AOK Stadion in Wolfsburg.

Wolfsburg U19 vs Lille U19 — UEFA Youth League 2018

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

UEFA Youth League: Wolfsburg U19 0–3 Lille U19