Lille U19 2–0 Wolfsburg U19: Result & Stats

Lille U19

FT

2 – 0

HT: 1 – 0

Wolfsburg U19

José Reis 90', 24'

9/14/2021

UEFA Youth League · Group Stage - 1Complexe Sportif de Luchin

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Lille U1970%

×Draw21%

Wolfsburg U198%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Lille U19Expected goals in this matchWolfsburg U19

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

0.41

Lille U19

1.75

Wolfsburg U19

0.41

Lille U19 creates 327% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 3 away

1.17

creates per match

0.00

0.83

allows per match

2.33

creates per match

Lille U19

1.17

Wolfsburg U19

0.00

allows per match

Lille U19

0.83

Wolfsburg U19

2.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Lille U19+0.00on par

Wolfsburg U19+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No72
Yes28

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lille U19 ↓

Wolfsburg U19 →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–012%

0–15%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–020%

1–18%

1–22%

1–30%

1–40%

2

2–018%

2–17%

2–21%

2–30%

2–40%

3

3–010%

3–14%

3–21%

3–30%

3–40%

4

4–05%

4–12%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (20%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

88%12%1.5

63%37%2.5

37%63%3.5

17%83%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Lille U19 or draw

92%

Lille U19 or Wolfsburg U19

79%

Draw or Wolfsburg U19

30%

Winning margin

Lille U19 wins by 2+

42%

Wolfsburg U19 wins by 2+

1%

Team goals

Lille U19 1+ goals

83%

Lille U19 2+ goals

52%

Lille U19 3+ goals

25%

Wolfsburg U19 1+ goals

34%

Wolfsburg U19 2+ goals

6%

Wolfsburg U19 3+ goals

1%

Draw no bet

Lille U19 (draw refunded)

90%

Wolfsburg U19 (draw refunded)

10%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

19%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lille U19 at home — creates 1.17, concedes 0.83 · 6 matches

Wolfsburg U19 away — creates 0.00, concedes 2.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lille U19 attack 1.17 + Wolfsburg U19 defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.75

Wolfsburg U19 attack 0.00 + Lille U19 defence 0.83 → ÷2 → 0.41

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 70%?"

Lille U19 scores more

70%

level

21%

Wolfsburg U19 scores more

8%

Lille U19 at 70% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 70% does not mean "Lille U19 will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

18'

C. Mabanza

24'

José Reis↳ I. Bouleghcha

26'

52'

64'

67'

79'

L. Littbarski← P. Heller

79'

L. Homann← M. Till Meier

82'

I. Bouleghcha

87'

N. Buayi-Kiala← A. Messoussa

89'

D. Nuhanović← F. Hinze

90+1'

A. Garcia

90+3'

K. Auvray← José Reis

90'

José Reis↳ E. Boula

Lille

Wolfsburg

1

24

5

14

16

▼

Heller

11

Di-Michel

6

Patut

20

▼

Meier

21

Wagbe

2

▼

Hinze

10

▼

Ambros

1

Negrel

2

A

3

5

4

11

A

Boula

6

Mabanza

8

Raghouber

10

▼

Vromant

9

⚽2

▼

Reis

7

▼

Messoussa

Manager: S. Pichot

64'▲Y. Said←▼T. Vromant

87'▲N. Buayi-Kiala←▼A. Messoussa

90+3'▲K. Auvray←▼José Reis

Lille U19 substitutes

18Said14Buayi-Kiala15Auvray16Raux13Lantaki12Thumerel17Makhabe

Manager: C. Wimmer

67'▲S. Busch←▼L. Ambros

79'▲L. Littbarski←▼P. Heller

79'▲L. Homann←▼M. Till Meier

89'▲D. Nuhanović←▼F. Hinze

Wolfsburg U19 substitutes

9Busch7Littbarski30Homann28Nuhanović13Pinto4Tomljenović22Mohwinkel