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Wolfsberger AC vs TSV Hartberg — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
1 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
11/8/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 13Lavanttal-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Wolfsberger AC43%
×Draw24%
TSV Hartberg34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.67
TSV Hartberg
1.46

Wolfsberger AC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 131 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
TSV Hartberg
1.40

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
TSV Hartberg
1.76

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
TSV Hartberg+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

TSV Hartberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
66%
Wolfsberger AC or TSV Hartberg
76%
Draw or TSV Hartberg
57%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
22%
TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
81%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
50%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
23%
TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
77%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
43%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
56%
TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
44%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

TSV Hartberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 1.76 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.67

TSV Hartberg attack 1.40 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
43%
level
24%
TSV Hartberg scores more
34%

Wolfsberger AC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Wolfsberger AC 1–2 TSV Hartberg

TSV Hartberg beat Wolfsberger AC 2-1 in Bundesliga on November 8, 2025.

The match was played at Lavanttal-Arena in Wolfsberg.