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TSV Hartberg vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

TSV Hartberg
TSV Hartberg
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 2
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
9/20/2025BundesligaBundesliga · Round 7Stadion Hartberg

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

TSV Hartberg34%
×Draw24%
Wolfsberger AC42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

TSV Hartberg
1.38
Wolfsberger AC
1.57

Wolfsberger AC creates 14% more chances

Season form · 131 home / 130 away

creates per match

TSV Hartberg
1.30
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

TSV Hartberg
1.55
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

TSV Hartberg+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

TSV Hartberg ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

TSV Hartberg or draw
58%
TSV Hartberg or Wolfsberger AC
76%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
66%

Winning margin

TSV Hartberg wins by 2+
15%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

TSV Hartberg 1+ goals
75%
TSV Hartberg 2+ goals
40%
TSV Hartberg 3+ goals
16%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
79%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
46%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
21%

Draw no bet

TSV Hartberg (draw refunded)
44%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

TSV Hartberg at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.55 · 131 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

TSV Hartberg attack 1.30 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + TSV Hartberg defence 1.55 → ÷2 → 1.57

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

TSV Hartberg scores more
34%
level
24%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
42%

Wolfsberger AC at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: TSV Hartberg 2–2 Wolfsberger AC

TSV Hartberg and Wolfsberger AC drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on September 20, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Hartberg in Hartberg.