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Wolfsberger AC vs Lask Linz — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
2 – 1
HT: 0 – 1
Lask Linz
Lask Linz
12/7/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 16Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Wolfsberger AC35%
×Draw25%
Lask Linz40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.40
Lask Linz
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 130 home / 130 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
Lask Linz
1.52

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
Lask Linz
1.22

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
Lask Linz+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Lask Linz →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–29%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
60%
Wolfsberger AC or Lask Linz
75%
Draw or Lask Linz
65%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
16%
Lask Linz wins by 2+
20%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
75%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
41%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
17%
Lask Linz 1+ goals
78%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
45%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
46%
Lask Linz (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Lask Linz away — creates 1.52, concedes 1.22 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Lask Linz defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.40

Lask Linz attack 1.52 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
35%
level
25%
Lask Linz scores more
40%

Lask Linz at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Bundesliga: Wolfsberger AC 2–1 Lask Linz

Wolfsberger AC beat Lask Linz 2-1 in Bundesliga on December 7, 2024.

The match was played at Lavanttal Arena in Wolfsberg.