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Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

Lask Linz
Lask Linz
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
3/8/2026BundesligaBundesliga · Round 22Raiffeisen Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 130+ matches

Lask Linz44%
×Draw24%
Wolfsberger AC32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Lask Linz
1.64
Wolfsberger AC
1.36

Lask Linz creates 21% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 130 away

creates per match

Lask Linz
1.82
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

Lask Linz
1.14
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

Lask Linz+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Lask Linz ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Lask Linz or draw
68%
Lask Linz or Wolfsberger AC
76%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
56%

Winning margin

Lask Linz wins by 2+
23%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Lask Linz 1+ goals
81%
Lask Linz 2+ goals
49%
Lask Linz 3+ goals
23%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
74%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
39%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Lask Linz (draw refunded)
58%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Lask Linz at home — creates 1.82, concedes 1.14 · 130 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Lask Linz attack 1.82 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.64

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + Lask Linz defence 1.14 → ÷2 → 1.36

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Lask Linz scores more
44%
level
24%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
32%

Lask Linz at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Lask Linz will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Lask Linz vs Wolfsberger AC

Lask Linz beat Wolfsberger AC 3-1 in Bundesliga on March 8, 2026.

The match was played at Raiffeisen Arena in Linz.