Wolfsberger AC 1–1 Austria Lustenau: Result & Stats

Wolfsberger AC

AET

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 0

Austria Lustenau

6/5/2023

Bundesliga · Conference League Play-offs - 1st RoundLavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Wolfsberger AC47%

×Draw25%

Austria Lustenau29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wolfsberger ACExpected goals in this matchAustria Lustenau

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.61

1.21

Wolfsberger AC

1.61

Austria Lustenau

1.21

Wolfsberger AC creates 33% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 33 away

1.58

creates per match

0.91

1.51

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.58

Austria Lustenau

0.91

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC

1.51

Austria Lustenau

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Total goals

Over53
Under47

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes56
No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Austria Lustenau →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–06%

0–17%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–010%

1–112%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–19%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

94%6%1.5

77%23%2.5

53%47%3.5

31%69%4.5

15%85%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw

71%

Wolfsberger AC or Austria Lustenau

75%

Draw or Austria Lustenau

53%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+

24%

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals

80%

Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals

48%

Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals

22%

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals

70%

Austria Lustenau 2+ goals

34%

Austria Lustenau 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)

62%

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)

38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

44%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Austria Lustenau away — creates 0.91, concedes 1.64 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.61

Austria Lustenau attack 0.91 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more

47%

level

25%

Austria Lustenau scores more

29%

Wolfsberger AC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff