Austria Lustenau 1–2 Wolfsberger AC: Result & Stats

Austria Lustenau

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Wolfsberger AC

4/23/2024

Bundesliga · Relegation Round - 6ImmoAgentur Stadion Bregenz

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Austria Lustenau30%

×Draw23%

Wolfsberger AC47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Austria LustenauExpected goals in this matchWolfsberger AC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.38

1.77

Austria Lustenau

1.38

Wolfsberger AC

1.77

Wolfsberger AC creates 28% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 130 away

1.30

creates per match

1.59

1.94

allows per match

1.45

creates per match

Austria Lustenau

1.30

Wolfsberger AC

1.59

allows per match

Austria Lustenau

1.94

Wolfsberger AC

1.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Austria Lustenau+0.00on par

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Lustenau ↓

Wolfsberger AC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–18%

0–27%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Austria Lustenau or draw

53%

Austria Lustenau or Wolfsberger AC

77%

Draw or Wolfsberger AC

70%

Winning margin

Austria Lustenau wins by 2+

13%

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Austria Lustenau 1+ goals

75%

Austria Lustenau 2+ goals

40%

Austria Lustenau 3+ goals

16%

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals

83%

Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals

53%

Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Austria Lustenau (draw refunded)

39%

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)

61%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Lustenau at home — creates 1.30, concedes 1.94 · 33 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Lustenau attack 1.30 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.38

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + Austria Lustenau defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Austria Lustenau scores more

30%

level

23%

Wolfsberger AC scores more

47%

Wolfsberger AC at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff