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Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt — Bundesliga 2018

Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
FT
4 – 1
HT: 3 – 0
Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
8/3/2024BundesligaBundesliga · Round 1Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Wolfsberger AC46%
×Draw23%
Austria Klagenfurt31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC
1.77
Austria Klagenfurt
1.40

Wolfsberger AC creates 26% more chances

Season form · 130 home / 65 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.58
Austria Klagenfurt
1.29

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC
1.51
Austria Klagenfurt
1.97

finishing

Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par
Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC ↓

Austria Klagenfurt →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC or draw
69%
Wolfsberger AC or Austria Klagenfurt
77%
Draw or Austria Klagenfurt
54%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
25%
Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
83%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
53%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
26%
Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
75%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
41%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
60%
Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.51 · 130 matches

Austria Klagenfurt away — creates 1.29, concedes 1.97 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.58 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.97 → ÷2 → 1.77

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.29 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.40

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Wolfsberger AC scores more
46%
level
23%
Austria Klagenfurt scores more
31%

Wolfsberger AC at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC vs Austria Klagenfurt

Wolfsberger AC beat Austria Klagenfurt 4-1 in Bundesliga on August 3, 2024.

The match was played at Lavanttal Arena in Wolfsberg.