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Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC — Bundesliga 2018

Austria Klagenfurt
Austria Klagenfurt
FT
2 – 2
HT: 1 – 0
Wolfsberger AC
Wolfsberger AC
8/9/2023BundesligaBundesliga · Round 228 Black Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Austria Klagenfurt31%
×Draw24%
Wolfsberger AC45%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Austria Klagenfurt
1.35
Wolfsberger AC
1.66

Wolfsberger AC creates 23% more chances

Season form · 65 home / 130 away

creates per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.26
Wolfsberger AC
1.59

allows per match

Austria Klagenfurt
1.72
Wolfsberger AC
1.45

finishing

Austria Klagenfurt+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC+0.00on par

Total goals

58%Over
  • Over58
  • Under42

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Austria Klagenfurt ↓

Wolfsberger AC →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
58%42%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Austria Klagenfurt or draw
55%
Austria Klagenfurt or Wolfsberger AC
76%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC
69%

Winning margin

Austria Klagenfurt wins by 2+
14%
Wolfsberger AC wins by 2+
23%

Team goals

Austria Klagenfurt 1+ goals
74%
Austria Klagenfurt 2+ goals
39%
Austria Klagenfurt 3+ goals
15%
Wolfsberger AC 1+ goals
81%
Wolfsberger AC 2+ goals
49%
Wolfsberger AC 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Austria Klagenfurt (draw refunded)
41%
Wolfsberger AC (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Austria Klagenfurt at home — creates 1.26, concedes 1.72 · 65 matches

Wolfsberger AC away — creates 1.59, concedes 1.45 · 130 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Austria Klagenfurt attack 1.26 + Wolfsberger AC defence 1.45 → ÷2 → 1.35

Wolfsberger AC attack 1.59 + Austria Klagenfurt defence 1.72 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Austria Klagenfurt scores more
31%
level
24%
Wolfsberger AC scores more
45%

Wolfsberger AC at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Austria Klagenfurt vs Wolfsberger AC

Austria Klagenfurt and Wolfsberger AC drew 2-2 in Bundesliga on August 9, 2023.

The match was played at 28 Black Arena in Klagenfurt am Wörthersee.