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Wolfsberger AC II vs Wels — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
CANC
21:00
Wels
Wels
5/9/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 25Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wolfsberger AC II61%
×Draw19%
Wels20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC II
2.33
Wels
1.26

Wolfsberger AC II creates 85% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 46 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.77
Wels
1.09

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.43
Wels
2.89

finishing

Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par
Wels+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC II ↓

Wels →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 91% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC II or draw
80%
Wolfsberger AC II or Wels
81%
Draw or Wels
39%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
39%
Wels wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
90%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
67%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
41%
Wels 1+ goals
72%
Wels 2+ goals
36%
Wels 3+ goals
13%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
76%
Wels (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

Wels away — creates 1.09, concedes 2.89 · 46 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.77 + Wels defence 2.89 → ÷2 → 2.33

Wels attack 1.09 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.26

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 61%?"

Wolfsberger AC II scores more
61%
level
19%
Wels scores more
20%

Wolfsberger AC II at 61% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 61% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wolfsberger AC II host Wels

May 9, 2021: Wolfsberger AC II take on Wels in Regionalliga - Mitte. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wolfsberger AC II host Wels at Lavanttal Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.