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Wels vs Wolfsberger AC II — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wels
Wels
CANC
00:00
Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
3/13/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 18HUBER Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 46+ matches

Wels26%
×Draw21%
Wolfsberger AC II53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wels
1.46
Wolfsberger AC II
2.16

Wolfsberger AC II creates 48% more chances

Season form · 46 home / 96 away

creates per match

Wels
1.17
Wolfsberger AC II
1.84

allows per match

Wels
2.48
Wolfsberger AC II
1.74

finishing

Wels+0.00on par
Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wels ↓

Wolfsberger AC II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–19%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
29%71%

Double chance

Wels or draw
47%
Wels or Wolfsberger AC II
79%
Draw or Wolfsberger AC II
74%

Winning margin

Wels wins by 2+
11%
Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Wels 1+ goals
77%
Wels 2+ goals
43%
Wels 3+ goals
18%
Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
88%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
63%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Wels (draw refunded)
33%
Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wels at home — creates 1.17, concedes 2.48 · 46 matches

Wolfsberger AC II away — creates 1.84, concedes 1.74 · 96 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wels attack 1.17 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.74 → ÷2 → 1.46

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.84 + Wels defence 2.48 → ÷2 → 2.16

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wels scores more
26%
level
21%
Wolfsberger AC II scores more
53%

Wolfsberger AC II at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wels vs Wolfsberger AC II — Match Preview

Wels face Wolfsberger AC II on March 13, 2020 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wels host Wolfsberger AC II at HUBER Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.