Wolfsberger AC II vs Stadl-Paura — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018
Match Prediction
Statistical Prediction
Based on goals from last 46+ matches
Wolfsberger AC II68%
Stadl-Paura15%✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.
Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct
Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
Expected goals in this match
What is xG?
Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.
The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.
Wolfsberger AC II creates 125% more chances
Season form · 100 home / 46 away
creates per match
allows per match
finishing
Total goals
- Over74
- Under26
3+ goals likely
Both teams score
- Yes65
- No35
Both teams likely to score
Score probability
Probability of each scoreline, %
Wolfsberger AC II ↓
Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 88% of scorelines
More markets
Total goals
Double chance
Winning margin
Team goals
Draw no bet
Combos
Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.
How is this calculated?
Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.
Recent form of each side
Wolfsberger AC II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches
Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.96, concedes 3.59 · 46 matches
⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.
Expected goals for this match
Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.77 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.59 → ÷2 → 2.68
Stadl-Paura attack 0.96 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.19
Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.
Chance of every scoreline
From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.
The answer to "why 68%?"
Wolfsberger AC II at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.
What the model can't see
It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:
- injuries & suspensions
- the matchday lineup
- motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
- weather & pitch condition
- in-game coaching decisions
So 68% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."
Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.
Match Events
Head to Head
Mannsdorf-Großenzersdorf
Rapid Wien II
Ebreichsdorf
Wiener SC
Stripfing
Team Wiener Linien
Wiener Viktoria
Mattersburg II
Draßburg
SC Wiener Neustadt
Neusiedl
Mauerwerk
Bruck/Leitha
Traiskirchen
Admira II
Leobendorf
Sturm Graz II
Allerheiligen
Hertha
Gurten
Bad GleichenbergWolfsberger AC II
Union Vöcklamarkt
St. Anna
Weiz
Gleisdorf 09
Deutschlandsberger SC
Kalsdorf
Ried II
WolfsbergStadl-Paura
Wels
If points are equal: 1. Goal difference 2. Goals scored 3. Head-to-head
P = Played · W = Won · D = Drawn · L = Lost · GF = Goals for · GA = Goals against · GD = Goal difference · Pts = Points
Wolfsberger AC II host Stadl-Paura on Saturday, 9 October 2021 at 13:00. The match is part of the Regionalliga - Mitte 2018/2019 season.
Match Recap: Wolfsberger AC II vs Stadl-Paura
Wolfsberger AC II and Stadl-Paura drew 1-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on October 9, 2021.
Goals: A. Boakye (30'), P. Baric (48').
The match was played at Stadion Sankt Andrä in Sankt Andrä.