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Wolfsberger AC II vs Stadl-Paura — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wolfsberger AC II
Wolfsberger AC II
CANC
15:00
Stadl-Paura
Stadl-Paura
5/16/2021Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 27Lavanttal Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Wolfsberger AC II69%
×Draw16%
Stadl-Paura14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberger AC II
2.71
Stadl-Paura
1.17

Wolfsberger AC II creates 132% more chances

Season form · 100 home / 45 away

creates per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.77
Stadl-Paura
0.91

allows per match

Wolfsberger AC II
1.43
Stadl-Paura
3.64

finishing

Wolfsberger AC II+0.00on par
Stadl-Paura+0.00on par

Total goals

74%Over
  • Over74
  • Under26

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberger AC II ↓

Stadl-Paura →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–12%
0–21%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–06%
1–17%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–05%
4–16%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 87% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
74%26%3.5
53%47%4.5
33%67%

Double chance

Wolfsberger AC II or draw
86%
Wolfsberger AC II or Stadl-Paura
84%
Draw or Stadl-Paura
31%

Winning margin

Wolfsberger AC II wins by 2+
48%
Stadl-Paura wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Wolfsberger AC II 1+ goals
93%
Wolfsberger AC II 2+ goals
75%
Wolfsberger AC II 3+ goals
50%
Stadl-Paura 1+ goals
69%
Stadl-Paura 2+ goals
33%
Stadl-Paura 3+ goals
11%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberger AC II (draw refunded)
83%
Stadl-Paura (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
58%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberger AC II at home — creates 1.77, concedes 1.43 · 100 matches

Stadl-Paura away — creates 0.91, concedes 3.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberger AC II attack 1.77 + Stadl-Paura defence 3.64 → ÷2 → 2.71

Stadl-Paura attack 0.91 + Wolfsberger AC II defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 69%?"

Wolfsberger AC II scores more
69%
level
16%
Stadl-Paura scores more
14%

Wolfsberger AC II at 69% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 69% does not mean "Wolfsberger AC II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Wolfsberger AC II vs Stadl-Paura — Match Preview

Wolfsberger AC II face Stadl-Paura on May 16, 2021 in this Regionalliga - Mitte fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Wolfsberger AC II host Stadl-Paura at Lavanttal Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.