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Wolfsberg vs Bad Gleichenberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Wolfsberg
Wolfsberg
CANC
00:00
Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
4/9/2020Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 22ATSV Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 8+ matches

Wolfsberg47%
×Draw23%
Bad Gleichenberg30%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wolfsberg
1.83
Bad Gleichenberg
1.44

Wolfsberg creates 27% more chances

Season form · 8 home / 75 away

creates per match

Wolfsberg
1.63
Bad Gleichenberg
1.75

allows per match

Wolfsberg
1.13
Bad Gleichenberg
2.04

finishing

Wolfsberg+0.00on par
Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wolfsberg ↓

Bad Gleichenberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Wolfsberg or draw
70%
Wolfsberg or Bad Gleichenberg
77%
Draw or Bad Gleichenberg
53%

Winning margin

Wolfsberg wins by 2+
26%
Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
14%

Team goals

Wolfsberg 1+ goals
84%
Wolfsberg 2+ goals
54%
Wolfsberg 3+ goals
28%
Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
76%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
42%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wolfsberg (draw refunded)
61%
Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wolfsberg at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.13 · 8 matches

Bad Gleichenberg away — creates 1.75, concedes 2.04 · 75 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wolfsberg attack 1.63 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 1.83

Bad Gleichenberg attack 1.75 + Wolfsberg defence 1.13 → ÷2 → 1.44

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wolfsberg scores more
47%
level
23%
Bad Gleichenberg scores more
30%

Wolfsberg at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Wolfsberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Preview: Wolfsberg host Bad Gleichenberg

April 9, 2020: Wolfsberg take on Bad Gleichenberg in Regionalliga - Mitte. Track every goal, card, and substitution live on Scoreo as the action unfolds.

Wolfsberg host Bad Gleichenberg at ATSV Arena.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.