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Bad Gleichenberg vs Wolfsberg — Regionalliga - Mitte 2018

Bad Gleichenberg
Bad Gleichenberg
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Wolfsberg
Wolfsberg
9/6/2019Regionalliga - MitteRegionalliga - Mitte · Mitte - 7Bad Gleichenberg Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 9+ matches

Bad Gleichenberg62%
×Draw18%
Wolfsberg21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Bad Gleichenberg
2.70
Wolfsberg
1.53

Bad Gleichenberg creates 76% more chances

Season form · 76 home / 9 away

creates per match

Bad Gleichenberg
2.39
Wolfsberg
1.44

allows per match

Bad Gleichenberg
1.62
Wolfsberg
3.00

finishing

Bad Gleichenberg+0.00on par
Wolfsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

79%Over
  • Over79
  • Under21

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

73%Yes
  • Yes73
  • No27

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Bad Gleichenberg ↓

Wolfsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–01%
0–12%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–04%
1–16%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–26%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–15%
4–24%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (8%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
99%1%1.5
92%8%2.5
79%21%3.5
60%40%4.5
40%60%

Double chance

Bad Gleichenberg or draw
79%
Bad Gleichenberg or Wolfsberg
82%
Draw or Wolfsberg
38%

Winning margin

Bad Gleichenberg wins by 2+
41%
Wolfsberg wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Bad Gleichenberg 1+ goals
93%
Bad Gleichenberg 2+ goals
75%
Bad Gleichenberg 3+ goals
50%
Wolfsberg 1+ goals
78%
Wolfsberg 2+ goals
45%
Wolfsberg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Bad Gleichenberg (draw refunded)
75%
Wolfsberg (draw refunded)
25%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
67%
Both score & under 3
6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Bad Gleichenberg at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.62 · 76 matches

Wolfsberg away — creates 1.44, concedes 3.00 · 9 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Bad Gleichenberg attack 2.39 + Wolfsberg defence 3.00 → ÷2 → 2.70

Wolfsberg attack 1.44 + Bad Gleichenberg defence 1.62 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Bad Gleichenberg scores more
62%
level
18%
Wolfsberg scores more
21%

Bad Gleichenberg at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Bad Gleichenberg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Regionalliga - Mitte: Bad Gleichenberg 3–1 Wolfsberg

Bad Gleichenberg beat Wolfsberg 3-1 in Regionalliga - Mitte on September 6, 2019.

The match was played at Bad Gleichenberg Arena in Bad Gleichenberg.