Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2–1 Wisłoka Dębica

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

FT

2 – 1

Wisłoka Dębica

10/18/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska36%

×Draw24%

Wisłoka Dębica40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wólczanka W. PełkińskaExpected goals in this matchWisłoka Dębica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.44

1.53

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.44

Wisłoka Dębica

1.53

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

1.43

creates per match

1.49

1.57

allows per match

1.46

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.43

Wisłoka Dębica

1.49

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.57

Wisłoka Dębica

1.46

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes60
No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Wisłoka Dębica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–18%

0–26%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

34%66%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw

60%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Wisłoka Dębica

76%

Draw or Wisłoka Dębica

64%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

17%

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+

19%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

76%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

42%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

18%

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals

78%

Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals

45%

Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals

20%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

47%

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)

53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Wisłoka Dębica away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.46 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.44

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.49 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

36%

level

24%

Wisłoka Dębica scores more

40%

Wisłoka Dębica at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff