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Wisłoka Dębica vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wisłoka Dębica
Wisłoka Dębica
FT
4 – 1
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
5/19/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 36Stadion Miejski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wisłoka Dębica48%
×Draw23%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wisłoka Dębica
1.80
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.37

Wisłoka Dębica creates 31% more chances

Season form · 104 home / 37 away

creates per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.52
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.38

allows per match

Wisłoka Dębica
1.36
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
2.08

finishing

Wisłoka Dębica+0.00on par
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wisłoka Dębica ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wisłoka Dębica or draw
71%
Wisłoka Dębica or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
77%
Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
52%

Winning margin

Wisłoka Dębica wins by 2+
26%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Wisłoka Dębica 1+ goals
83%
Wisłoka Dębica 2+ goals
54%
Wisłoka Dębica 3+ goals
27%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
75%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
40%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Wisłoka Dębica (draw refunded)
62%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
38%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wisłoka Dębica at home — creates 1.52, concedes 1.36 · 104 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wisłoka Dębica attack 1.52 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.80

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Wisłoka Dębica defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.37

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Wisłoka Dębica scores more
48%
level
23%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
29%

Wisłoka Dębica at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Wisłoka Dębica will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wisłoka Dębica vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Wisłoka Dębica beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 4-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski in Dębica.