Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2–0 Stal Stalowa Wola

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

FT

2 – 0

Stal Stalowa Wola

3/27/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 26Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska29%

×Draw24%

Stal Stalowa Wola47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wólczanka W. PełkińskaExpected goals in this matchStal Stalowa Wola

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.66

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.25

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.66

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 33% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 54 away

1.43

creates per match

1.74

1.57

allows per match

1.07

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.43

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.74

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.57

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.07

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes58
No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Stal Stalowa Wola →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–19%

0–28%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

33%67%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw

53%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Stal Stalowa Wola

76%

Draw or Stal Stalowa Wola

71%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

12%

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

25%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

71%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

36%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

13%

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

81%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

49%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

38%

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

46%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Stal Stalowa Wola away — creates 1.74, concedes 1.07 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.25

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.74 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

29%

level

24%

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

47%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff