Stal Stalowa Wola 0–1 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Stal Stalowa Wola

FT

0 – 1

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

10/30/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 15Podkarpackie Centrum Piłki Nożnej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Stal Stalowa Wola56%

×Draw22%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska22%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Stal Stalowa WolaExpected goals in this matchWólczanka W. Pełkińska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.98

1.17

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.98

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.17

Stal Stalowa Wola creates 69% more chances

Season form · 53 home / 37 away

1.89

creates per match

1.38

0.96

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

1.89

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.38

allows per match

Stal Stalowa Wola

0.96

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Stal Stalowa Wola+0.00on par

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Stal Stalowa Wola ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–110%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–06%

3–17%

3–24%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Stal Stalowa Wola or draw

78%

Stal Stalowa Wola or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

78%

Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

44%

Winning margin

Stal Stalowa Wola wins by 2+

33%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Stal Stalowa Wola 1+ goals

86%

Stal Stalowa Wola 2+ goals

59%

Stal Stalowa Wola 3+ goals

31%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

69%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

33%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Stal Stalowa Wola (draw refunded)

72%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

49%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Stal Stalowa Wola at home — creates 1.89, concedes 0.96 · 53 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Stal Stalowa Wola attack 1.89 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.98

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Stal Stalowa Wola defence 0.96 → ÷2 → 1.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Stal Stalowa Wola scores more

56%

level

22%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

22%

Stal Stalowa Wola at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Stal Stalowa Wola will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff