Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
1 – 2
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
10/31/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 17Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska33%
×Draw25%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg42%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.36
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.55

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 14% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 89 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.53

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.29

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Over
  • Over56
  • Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–112%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
56%44%3.5
33%67%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
58%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
75%
Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg
67%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
15%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
74%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
39%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
16%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
79%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
46%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
44%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
56%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
47%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.53, concedes 1.29 · 89 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.36

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.53 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.55

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
33%
level
25%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
42%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on October 31, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.