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Siarka Tarnobrzeg vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
Siarka Tarnobrzeg
FT
3 – 0
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
9/4/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 6Stadion OSiR Wisła

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg59%
×Draw20%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska21%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.17
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.21

Siarka Tarnobrzeg creates 79% more chances

Season form · 87 home / 37 away

creates per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
2.25
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.38

allows per match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg
1.03
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
2.08

finishing

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Siarka Tarnobrzeg ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–110%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Siarka Tarnobrzeg or draw
79%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
80%
Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
41%

Winning margin

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+
36%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals
89%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals
64%
Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals
36%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
70%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
34%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
12%

Draw no bet

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)
74%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at home — creates 2.25, concedes 1.03 · 87 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 2.25 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.17

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.21

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more
59%
level
20%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
21%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Siarka Tarnobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3–0 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Siarka Tarnobrzeg beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 4, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion OSiR Wisła in Tarnobrzeg.