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Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
3 – 2
HT: 1 – 1
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
6/18/2022III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska38%
×Draw24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska37%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.50
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.48

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 104 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.39

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.57

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

60%Yes
  • Yes60
  • No40

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Podlasie Biała Podlaska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–18%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
63%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
76%
Draw or Podlasie Biała Podlaska
62%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
18%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
78%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
44%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
19%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
77%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
43%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
51%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
49%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
49%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.57 · 104 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.50

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.39 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
38%
level
24%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
37%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Wólczanka W. Pełkińska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Podlasie Biała Podlaska

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska beat Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3-2 in III Liga - Group 4 on June 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.