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Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
Podlasie Biała Podlaska
FT
1 – 0
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
4/14/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 29Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Podlasie Biała Podlaska51%
×Draw22%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.91
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.34

Podlasie Biała Podlaska creates 43% more chances

Season form · 105 home / 37 away

creates per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.74
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.38

allows per match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska
1.30
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
2.08

finishing

Podlasie Biała Podlaska+0.00on par
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Podlasie Biała Podlaska ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–15%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–16%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Podlasie Biała Podlaska or draw
73%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
78%
Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
49%

Winning margin

Podlasie Biała Podlaska wins by 2+
29%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Podlasie Biała Podlaska 1+ goals
85%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 2+ goals
57%
Podlasie Biała Podlaska 3+ goals
30%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
74%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
39%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Podlasie Biała Podlaska (draw refunded)
65%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at home — creates 1.74, concedes 1.30 · 105 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Podlasie Biała Podlaska attack 1.74 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.91

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Podlasie Biała Podlaska defence 1.30 → ÷2 → 1.34

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Podlasie Biała Podlaska scores more
51%
level
22%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
27%

Podlasie Biała Podlaska at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Podlasie Biała Podlaska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Podlasie Biała Podlaska vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Podlasie Biała Podlaska beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1-0 in III Liga - Group 4 on April 14, 2021.

The match was played at Boisko na obiektach Państwowej Szkoły Wyższej in Biała Podlaska.