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Wólczanka W. Pełkińska vs Korona Kielce II — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
FT
1 – 3
Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
5/1/2021III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 33Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska41%
×Draw24%
Korona Kielce II35%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.65
Korona Kielce II
1.52

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 37 home / 71 away

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.43
Korona Kielce II
1.46

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.57
Korona Kielce II
1.87

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par
Korona Kielce II+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Korona Kielce II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw
65%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Korona Kielce II
76%
Draw or Korona Kielce II
59%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
21%
Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
81%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
49%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
23%
Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
78%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
45%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
54%
Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Korona Kielce II away — creates 1.46, concedes 1.87 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.87 → ÷2 → 1.65

Korona Kielce II attack 1.46 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.52

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
41%
level
24%
Korona Kielce II scores more
35%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Wólczanka W. Pełkińska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

III Liga - Group 4: Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1–3 Korona Kielce II

Korona Kielce II beat Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on May 1, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej in Wólka Pełkińska.