Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Korona Kielce II vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska — III Liga - Group 4 2020

Korona Kielce II
Korona Kielce II
FT
1 – 2
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
9/27/2020III Liga - Group 4III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 12Stadion Korona

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Korona Kielce II51%
×Draw21%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Korona Kielce II
2.06
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.49

Korona Kielce II creates 38% more chances

Season form · 70 home / 37 away

creates per match

Korona Kielce II
2.04
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
1.38

allows per match

Korona Kielce II
1.60
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
2.08

finishing

Korona Kielce II+0.00on par
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Korona Kielce II ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–16%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Korona Kielce II or draw
72%
Korona Kielce II or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
79%
Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska
49%

Winning margin

Korona Kielce II wins by 2+
29%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Korona Kielce II 1+ goals
87%
Korona Kielce II 2+ goals
61%
Korona Kielce II 3+ goals
34%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals
77%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals
44%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Korona Kielce II (draw refunded)
64%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)
36%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Korona Kielce II at home — creates 2.04, concedes 1.60 · 70 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Korona Kielce II attack 2.04 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 2.06

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Korona Kielce II defence 1.60 → ÷2 → 1.49

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Korona Kielce II scores more
51%
level
21%
Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more
28%

Korona Kielce II at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Korona Kielce II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Korona Kielce II vs Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska beat Korona Kielce II 2-1 in III Liga - Group 4 on September 27, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Korona in Kielce.