Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 6–1 Hetman Zamosc

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

FT

6 – 1

Hetman Zamosc

10/3/2020

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 13Stadion Miejski w Wólce Pełkińskiej

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska71%

×Draw16%

Hetman Zamosc13%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wólczanka W. PełkińskaExpected goals in this matchHetman Zamosc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.86

1.19

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

2.86

Hetman Zamosc

1.19

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska creates 140% more chances

Season form · 37 home / 20 away

1.43

creates per match

0.80

1.57

allows per match

4.30

creates per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.43

Hetman Zamosc

0.80

allows per match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.57

Hetman Zamosc

4.30

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over76
Under24

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska ↓

Hetman Zamosc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–12%

0–21%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–05%

1–16%

1–24%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–07%

3–18%

3–25%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–05%

4–16%

4–24%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 86% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

91%9%2.5

76%24%3.5

56%44%4.5

36%64%

Double chance

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or draw

87%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska or Hetman Zamosc

84%

Draw or Hetman Zamosc

29%

Winning margin

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

51%

Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

94%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

77%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

53%

Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals

70%

Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals

33%

Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals

12%

Draw no bet

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

84%

Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)

16%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

6%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at home — creates 1.43, concedes 1.57 · 37 matches

Hetman Zamosc away — creates 0.80, concedes 4.30 · 20 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.43 + Hetman Zamosc defence 4.30 → ÷2 → 2.86

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.80 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.19

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 71%?"

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

71%

level

16%

Hetman Zamosc scores more

13%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at 71% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 71% does not mean "Wólczanka W. Pełkińska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff