Hetman Zamosc 3–3 Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

Hetman Zamosc

FT

3 – 3

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

5/8/2021

III Liga - Group 4 · Group 4 - 34Stadion OSiR w Zamościu

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 20+ matches

Hetman Zamosc29%

×Draw22%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska50%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Hetman ZamoscExpected goals in this matchWólczanka W. Pełkińska

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

2.04

Hetman Zamosc

1.52

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

2.04

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska creates 34% more chances

Season form · 20 home / 37 away

0.95

creates per match

1.38

2.70

allows per match

2.08

creates per match

Hetman Zamosc

0.95

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

1.38

allows per match

Hetman Zamosc

2.70

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

2.08

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Hetman Zamosc+0.00on par

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska+0.00on par

Total goals

Over69
Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes68
No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Hetman Zamosc ↓

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

87%13%2.5

69%31%3.5

47%53%4.5

28%72%

Double chance

Hetman Zamosc or draw

50%

Hetman Zamosc or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

78%

Draw or Wólczanka W. Pełkińska

71%

Winning margin

Hetman Zamosc wins by 2+

13%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

Hetman Zamosc 1+ goals

78%

Hetman Zamosc 2+ goals

45%

Hetman Zamosc 3+ goals

20%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 1+ goals

87%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 2+ goals

60%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska 3+ goals

33%

Draw no bet

Hetman Zamosc (draw refunded)

37%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska (draw refunded)

63%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

59%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Hetman Zamosc at home — creates 0.95, concedes 2.70 · 20 matches

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska away — creates 1.38, concedes 2.08 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Hetman Zamosc attack 0.95 + Wólczanka W. Pełkińska defence 2.08 → ÷2 → 1.52

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska attack 1.38 + Hetman Zamosc defence 2.70 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 50%?"

Hetman Zamosc scores more

29%

level

22%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska scores more

50%

Wólczanka W. Pełkińska at 50% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 50% does not mean "Wólczanka W. Pełkińska will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff