Wohnbau Dietach 3–0 St. Valentin: Result & Stats

Wohnbau Dietach

FT

3 – 0

St. Valentin

9/21/2024

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 8DietachArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Wohnbau Dietach56%

×Draw21%

St. Valentin23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Wohnbau DietachExpected goals in this matchSt. Valentin

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.11

1.28

Wohnbau Dietach

2.11

St. Valentin

1.28

Wohnbau Dietach creates 65% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 73 away

2.18

creates per match

1.40

1.16

allows per match

2.04

creates per match

Wohnbau Dietach

2.18

St. Valentin

1.40

allows per match

Wohnbau Dietach

1.16

St. Valentin

2.04

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

St. Valentin+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wohnbau Dietach ↓

St. Valentin →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–14%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–07%

1–19%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–17%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–14%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

25%75%

Double chance

Wohnbau Dietach or draw

77%

Wohnbau Dietach or St. Valentin

79%

Draw or St. Valentin

44%

Winning margin

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+

34%

St. Valentin wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals

88%

Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals

62%

Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals

35%

St. Valentin 1+ goals

72%

St. Valentin 2+ goals

37%

St. Valentin 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)

71%

St. Valentin (draw refunded)

29%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wohnbau Dietach at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

St. Valentin away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.04 · 73 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.18 + St. Valentin defence 2.04 → ÷2 → 2.11

St. Valentin attack 1.40 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 56%?"

Wohnbau Dietach scores more

56%

level

21%

St. Valentin scores more

23%

Wohnbau Dietach at 56% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 56% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff