St. Valentin 1–3 Wohnbau Dietach: Result & Stats

St. Valentin

FT

1 – 3

HT: 1 – 0

Wohnbau Dietach

4/27/2025

Landesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 23STEYR Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

St. Valentin26%

×Draw22%

Wohnbau Dietach51%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

St. ValentinExpected goals in this matchWohnbau Dietach

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.33

1.93

St. Valentin

1.33

Wohnbau Dietach

1.93

Wohnbau Dietach creates 45% more chances

Season form · 74 home / 45 away

1.54

creates per match

2.16

1.69

allows per match

1.11

creates per match

St. Valentin

1.54

Wohnbau Dietach

2.16

allows per match

St. Valentin

1.69

Wohnbau Dietach

1.11

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

St. Valentin+0.00on par

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes63
No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

St. Valentin ↓

Wohnbau Dietach →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–27%

0–35%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–210%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–03%

2–17%

2–26%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

St. Valentin or draw

49%

St. Valentin or Wohnbau Dietach

78%

Draw or Wohnbau Dietach

74%

Winning margin

St. Valentin wins by 2+

11%

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+

29%

Team goals

St. Valentin 1+ goals

74%

St. Valentin 2+ goals

38%

St. Valentin 3+ goals

15%

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals

85%

Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals

57%

Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

St. Valentin (draw refunded)

34%

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)

66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

53%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

St. Valentin at home — creates 1.54, concedes 1.69 · 74 matches

Wohnbau Dietach away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

St. Valentin attack 1.54 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.33

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.16 + St. Valentin defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

St. Valentin scores more

26%

level

22%

Wohnbau Dietach scores more

51%

Wohnbau Dietach at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff