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Wohnbau Dietach vs Ostermiething — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Wohnbau Dietach
Wohnbau Dietach
FT
3 – 1
Ostermiething
Ostermiething
8/26/2023Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 4DietachArena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 44+ matches

Wohnbau Dietach53%
×Draw21%
Ostermiething26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Wohnbau Dietach
2.12
Ostermiething
1.46

Wohnbau Dietach creates 45% more chances

Season form · 44 home / 60 away

creates per match

Wohnbau Dietach
2.18
Ostermiething
1.77

allows per match

Wohnbau Dietach
1.16
Ostermiething
2.05

finishing

Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par
Ostermiething+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Wohnbau Dietach ↓

Ostermiething →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–23%
0–31%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–19%
1–26%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–13%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
48%52%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Wohnbau Dietach or draw
74%
Wohnbau Dietach or Ostermiething
79%
Draw or Ostermiething
47%

Winning margin

Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+
31%
Ostermiething wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals
88%
Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals
62%
Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals
35%
Ostermiething 1+ goals
77%
Ostermiething 2+ goals
43%
Ostermiething 3+ goals
18%

Draw no bet

Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)
66%
Ostermiething (draw refunded)
34%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
59%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Wohnbau Dietach at home — creates 2.18, concedes 1.16 · 44 matches

Ostermiething away — creates 1.77, concedes 2.05 · 60 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.18 + Ostermiething defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 2.12

Ostermiething attack 1.77 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.16 → ÷2 → 1.46

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Wohnbau Dietach scores more
53%
level
21%
Ostermiething scores more
26%

Wohnbau Dietach at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Wohnbau Dietach 3–1 Ostermiething

Wohnbau Dietach beat Ostermiething 3-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on August 26, 2023.

The match was played at DietachArena in Dietach.