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Ostermiething vs Wohnbau Dietach — Landesliga - Oberosterreich 2019

Ostermiething
Ostermiething
FT
1 – 1
Wohnbau Dietach
Wohnbau Dietach
3/22/2024Landesliga - OberosterreichLandesliga - Oberosterreich · Oberösterreich - 19Stampfl-Bau Arena Ostermiething

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 45+ matches

Ostermiething30%
×Draw21%
Wohnbau Dietach49%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Ostermiething
1.60
Wohnbau Dietach
2.08

Wohnbau Dietach creates 30% more chances

Season form · 59 home / 45 away

creates per match

Ostermiething
2.10
Wohnbau Dietach
2.16

allows per match

Ostermiething
2.00
Wohnbau Dietach
1.11

finishing

Ostermiething+0.00on par
Wohnbau Dietach+0.00on par

Total goals

71%Over
  • Over71
  • Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Ostermiething ↓

Wohnbau Dietach →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–25%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–24%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
71%29%3.5
50%50%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Ostermiething or draw
51%
Ostermiething or Wohnbau Dietach
79%
Draw or Wohnbau Dietach
70%

Winning margin

Ostermiething wins by 2+
14%
Wohnbau Dietach wins by 2+
28%

Team goals

Ostermiething 1+ goals
80%
Ostermiething 2+ goals
47%
Ostermiething 3+ goals
22%
Wohnbau Dietach 1+ goals
87%
Wohnbau Dietach 2+ goals
61%
Wohnbau Dietach 3+ goals
34%

Draw no bet

Ostermiething (draw refunded)
38%
Wohnbau Dietach (draw refunded)
62%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
61%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Ostermiething at home — creates 2.10, concedes 2.00 · 59 matches

Wohnbau Dietach away — creates 2.16, concedes 1.11 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Ostermiething attack 2.10 + Wohnbau Dietach defence 1.11 → ÷2 → 1.60

Wohnbau Dietach attack 2.16 + Ostermiething defence 2.00 → ÷2 → 2.08

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 49%?"

Ostermiething scores more
30%
level
21%
Wohnbau Dietach scores more
49%

Wohnbau Dietach at 49% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 49% does not mean "Wohnbau Dietach will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Landesliga - Oberosterreich: Ostermiething 1–1 Wohnbau Dietach

Ostermiething and Wohnbau Dietach drew 1-1 in Landesliga - Oberosterreich on March 22, 2024.

The match was played at Stampfl-Bau Arena Ostermiething in Ostermiething.